The weekend here in Baghdad was an eventful one. The Iraqi Parliament announced a new cabinet and the story is available here.
This despite the incessant shrilling for the last three years of the harbingers of doom, the prophets of gloom and the pundits of failure. The worst event was a minor shouting match as a small contingent of Sunnis walked out, upset over the failure to announce the important positions of defense minister, interior minister and minister of national security. Those will be filled in time.
Iraq’s new prime minister seems to be serious about dealing with the various elements that are fomenting continued violence.
The PM said disarming the militias would be a priority, along with promoting national reconciliation, improving infrastructure and setting up a special protection force for Baghdad.
There is still violence happening in the capital, but the government is not collapsing, despite the impression you may be getting if you watch the nightly news. For a city of six million, Baghdad is a violent place compared to other cities around the world of a similar size. But that is to be expected after 30 years of a despot’s rule. People are trying to settle scores and competing for power. It’s tragic, and it saddens me, but it is also to be expected considering the strongman mentality that has dominated the Middle East for so long.
What is done is done. In the short term, historically speaking, Baghdad is a dangerous place to live. But the level of violence is clearly unsustainable in the long term. I’ve heard my generals telling me that guerilla wars, insurgencies or whatever you want to call the tactics of the animalistic, calculating murderers who are carrying out this war against basic human decency last – on average – 13 years. We’re only three years into this war. Iraqis are tired of the violence and they’re calling in more and more tips that help kill and capture troublemakers.
What could cause the insurgents to win a whole or partial victory? Intellectually lazy voters back home. Politicians more concerned about their careers than about doing what is right. Weak willed, short sighted people who don’t understand the larger context of this war. The Iraqis can make it, if we stand by them. If you’re following the news, you know that the focus of the insurgency has shifted from spending most of the energy trying to kill coalition members to trying to kill Iraqi police and Army personnel, as well as the old standby of blowing up civilians going about their day.
I’ve said it before, and I will say it again – when all you have to offer people is violence, fear, murder – you’re doomed unless you have complete control of the population. The insurgency doesn’t have that, or anything close to it. They have a strong presence in al-Anbar, and there is heavy fighting around Ramadi right now (ignore the mostly ridiculous editorial portions of linked story). Ramadi is a hotbed alright, but not an unwinnable one by any means.
War isn’t antiseptic, it isn’t easy, and it is expensive – fiscally, mentally, physically and emotionally. But we are winning. Walking off the field now would be stupid and tragic.